At what age is a Senior Living Facility Obsolete?

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At a certain age, virtually any type property will become obsolete.  Thus, at what age is it for Senior Living and Skilled Nursing Facilities?   I believe it is more a matter of functionality than age.

In today’s competitive world, Assisted Living Communities that are older converted Skilled Nursing Facilities tend to have challenges in keeping stabilized occupancy.   Often times they have shared bathrooms, small one-room units and limited common areas.  With lower acuity residents, private bathrooms are a must when marketing a facility.   Larger units with multiple rooms that can function as an Independent or Assisted Living unit have great appeal to allow residents to age in a place as additional care becomes necessary.

Skilled Nursing Facilities that have 3 and 4 bed wards (rooms) are very difficult to fill and often times the total bed count needs to be reduced to allow for mostly private or 2 bed rooms.   Even if the facility is accepting mostly Medicaid residents, two residents per room tends to be the maximum that is acceptable.

Other facility challenges include long narrow hallways, low ceilings, lack of elevators, and poor lighting.  Depending on the structure, these challenges can be very difficult to rectify.   While it tends to be the older Skilled Nursing Facilities that were built in the 1960s and 1970s, some Assisted Living Communities built in the 1980s and 1990s can also have a functionally obsolete design and layout.

If lack of private bathrooms and small rooms are the challenge, sometimes a solution is to focus on higher acuity Assisted Living and/or Memory Care where residents have higher acuity needs and can use a bathroom or kitchen on their own.  Unfortunately, there are some communities that have too many design and layout issues to overcome and possibly the best solution is to build a new facility on the existing ground.

To discuss the age, functionality and sale ability of your Senior Living or Skilled Nursing Facility please contact Jason Punzel at 630-858-2501 x 233 or [email protected]  or Joy Goebbert at 630-858-2501 x 230 or [email protected].

The post At what age is a Senior Living Facility Obsolete? appeared first on Senior Living Investment Brokerage.

Have Senior Housing prices peaked?

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Recently, I spoke at the Washington Healthcare Association’s (WHCA) annual conference.  I have spoken there three times on the general state of the senior housing and skilled nursing sales market.   For the first time, I had to say that the data shows that pricing has peaked.   According to the National Investment Center (NIC), prices peaked in mid-2015.   As a firm, Senior Living Investment Brokerage, Inc. sells 90+ facilities each year and we have a very good pulse on the market.  Our data would support this conclusion.  On a facility that we would have received six offers a year ago, we now might receive four.   Prices seem to be down approximately 5%.  However, when analyzing pricing over the past six to eight years, today’s prices are still very good.

The million-dollar question (quite literally!) is, where is pricing going in the future?  Prices are still very good and there are still many buyers with plenty of access to capital.  However, the Federal Reserve has come out recently talking about increasing rates again, which could push up the rate on the ten-year treasury, increasing borrowing costs.   If interest rates continue to rise, we could see a further decline in pricing.   However, we don’t see a dramatic decline in the next 6-12 months.   There are too many good buyers with plenty of capital to invest.   Occupancy is steady and new construction in most markets is not out of line.  Beyond 12 months, it is very difficult to predict and prices could change much more.  For any owner thinking about selling in the next several years, now might be a very good time.

For a market valuation on your senior living or skilled nursing facility, please contact Jason Punzel at [email protected] or Joy Goebbert at [email protected], 630-858-2501.

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Is “Price Per Unit” a Good Valuation Metric for Senior Living

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According to the Senior Care Acquisition Report 2016, the average price per unit for Assisted Living Facilities in 2015 was $189,200 and for Independent Living Facilities it was $192,900.   However, is this really a good metric for valuing a senior living community?

In 2015 the average price per unit for Class A Independent Living Facilities was $248,500 and Class B wa $138,300.   We currently have a Class C, 110-unit Independent Living Community under contract in the Pacific Northwest that will sell for less than $40,000/unit.  As a company, last year we sold Skilled Nursing Facilities from $10,000-$130,000+/bed and Assisted Living Communities from $20,000-$300,000+.  There are some older facilities in rural areas that have negative EBITDA which may not have any interested buyers and thus have little, if any value.  Additionally, there are facilities in downtown areas of San Francisco, Seattle and New York for example that would sell for $500,000+/unit if they were actively marketed by Senior Living Investment Brokerage, INC today.

Because of the wide range in prices, we strongly recommend that owners focus more on cap rates and internal rates of return when valuing their properties.   Ultimately, buyers are interested in a return on their investment and they will use these metrics to determine the price they will pay.   The price per unit then becomes the result of and not the cause of the price.

To discuss the value of your Senior Living or Skilled Nursing Facility please contact Jason Punzel at 630-858-2501 x 233 or [email protected]  or Joy Goebbert at 630-858-2501 x 230 or [email protected].

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How Do Rising Interest Rates Impact the Value of my Senior Living Community?

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Over the past several years, interest rates have remained extremely low.  The 10 year US Treasury rate (a common benchmark for financial instruments) reached an all-time low in July, 2012, at 1.53% and today is around 1.8%, the Federal Funds Rate has been close to 0% for years and the Fed made its first rate increase this past December.   The 10 Yr Treasury hit an all-time high in August, 1981, at 15.32% and has averaged 4.64% since 1870.   Thus, there is a high likelihood that interest rates will increase as they revert back to the historic mean.

Interest rates are a measure of an investor’s desired rate of return.   An interest rate, or a rate of return, is made up of three components, risk, inflation, and time value of money (allowing someone else to use your money).   The theoretical risk free investment is a US Treasury or FDIC insured savings account/CD.   Thus, all other investments can be benchmarked by these indexes.  The greater the perceived risk of an investment, the greater the spread, or “risk premium”, will be for that investment over the US Treasury.   Today, average capitalization rates (rates of return/risk premium) for assisted living facilities are around 7.5%, or about 500 basis points above the 10 US Treasury.   This is the risk premium investors place on assisted living versus the alternative of investing in a “risk free” US Treasury bond.   When the rates increase on US Treasury bonds, typically cap rates increase on senior living communities (or any investment), assuming the risk premium stays the same.

To determine the value of a senior living community, the Net Operating Income (NOI) is divided by the Cap Rate.

Net Operating Income (NOI) /Cap Rate = Value  – (the higher the cap rate, the lower the value).

Thus, as interest rates, and cap rates increase, values go down.  Below are several examples:

NOI = $600,000, Cap Rate = 7%, Value = $8,571,429

NOI = $600,000, Cap Rate = 8%, Value = $7,500,000

NOI = $600,000, Cap Rate = 9%, Value = $6,667,000

As you can see, for every 1% increase in the cap rate, the value drops by over 11%.   Thus, if interest rates continue to rise over the next several years, it could dramatically affect pricing.   If an owner has a desire to sell their community anytime in the next several years, now might be an opportune time.

For a complete analysis on how interest rates can affect your community’s value, both now and in the future, contact Jason Punzel, Senior Living Investment Brokerage, INC, at 630-858-2501 x 233 or [email protected]

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