sell retirement community

Have Senior Housing prices peaked?

Recently, I spoke at the Washington Healthcare Association’s (WHCA) annual conference. I have spoken there three times on the general state of the senior housing and skilled nursing sales market. For the first time, I had to say that the data shows that pricing has peaked. According to the National Investment Center (NIC), prices peaked in mid-2015. As a firm, Senior Living Investment Brokerage, Inc. sells 90+ facilities each year and we have a very good pulse on the market. Our data would support this conclusion. On a facility that we would have received six offers a year ago, we now might receive four. Prices seem to be down approximately 5%. However, when analyzing pricing over the past six to eight years, today’s prices are still very good.

The million-dollar question (quite literally!) is, where is pricing going in the future? Prices are still very good and there are still many buyers with plenty of access to capital. However, the Federal Reserve has come out recently talking about increasing rates again, which could push up the rate on the ten-year treasury, increasing borrowing costs. If interest rates continue to rise, we could see a further decline in pricing. However, we don’t see a dramatic decline in the next 6-12 months. There are too many good buyers with plenty of capital to invest. Occupancy is steady and new construction in most markets is not out of line. Beyond 12 months, it is very difficult to predict and prices could change much more. For any owner thinking about selling in the next several years, now might be a very good time.

For a market valuation on your senior living or skilled nursing facility, please contact Jason Punzel at [email protected] or Joy Goebbert at [email protected], 630-858-2501.

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How Do Rising Interest Rates Impact the Value of my Senior Living Community?

April 11, 2016/in assisted living, cap rate, Capitalization Rate, financing, independent living, interest rate, internal rate of return, IRR, Jason Punzel, operating margin, prepare to sell assisted living, sell assisted living, sell nursing home, sell retirement community, Senior Living Investment Brokerage, Washington/by ryanmsaul

Over the past several years, interest rates have remained extremely low. The 10 year US Treasury rate (a common benchmark for financial instruments) reached an all-time low in July, 2012, at 1.53% and today is around 1.8%, the Federal Funds Rate has been close to 0% for years and the Fed made its first rate increase this past December. The 10 Yr Treasury hit an all-time high in August, 1981, at 15.32% and has averaged 4.64% since 1870. Thus, there is a high likelihood that interest rates will increase as they revert back to the historic mean.

Interest rates are a measure of an investor’s desired rate of return. An interest rate, or a rate of return, is made up of three components, risk, inflation, and time value of money (allowing someone else to use your money). The theoretical risk free investment is a US Treasury or FDIC insured savings account/CD. Thus, all other investments can be benchmarked by these indexes. The greater the perceived risk of an investment, the greater the spread, or “risk premium”, will be for that investment over the US Treasury. Today, average capitalization rates (rates of return/risk premium) for assisted living facilities are around 7.5%, or about 500 basis points above the 10 US Treasury. This is the risk premium investors place on assisted living versus the alternative of investing in a “risk free” US Treasury bond. When the rates increase on US Treasury bonds, typically cap rates increase on senior living communities (or any investment), assuming the risk premium stays the same.

To determine the value of a senior living community, the Net Operating Income (NOI) is divided by the Cap Rate.

Net Operating Income (NOI) /Cap Rate = Value – (the higher the cap rate, the lower the value).

Thus, as interest rates, and cap rates increase, values go down. Below are several examples:

NOI = $600,000, Cap Rate = 7%, Value = $8,571,429

NOI = $600,000, Cap Rate = 8%, Value = $7,500,000

NOI = $600,000, Cap Rate = 9%, Value = $6,667,000

As you can see, for every 1% increase in the cap rate, the value drops by over 11%. Thus, if interest rates continue to rise over the next several years, it could dramatically affect pricing. If an owner has a desire to sell their community anytime in the next several years, now might be an opportune time.

For a complete analysis on how interest rates can affect your community’s value, both now and in the future, contact Jason Punzel, Senior Living Investment Brokerage, INC, at 630-858-2501 x 233 or [email protected]

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Matthew Alley Speaks at InterFace Seniors Housing Texas Conference

November 20, 2015/in Alzheimer's, assisted living community, assisted living price, assisted living sale, buy assisted living, buy nursing home, cap rate, Capitalization Rate, CCRC, development, due diligence, exclusive listing, financing, independent living facility, internal rate of return, long term care, market, Matthew Alley, memory care, new construction, nursing home price, prepare to sell assisted living, prepare to sell nursing home, private equity, proposal, REIT, risk, sell assisted living, sell CCRC, sell long term care, sell memory care, sell nursing home, sell portfolio, sell retirement community, sell seniors housing, sell skilled nursing, sell to REIT, senior housing brokerage, senior housing sales, Senior Living Investment Brokerage, seniors housing brokerage, SLIB, Texas, valuation, what is my assisting living worth, what is my nursing home worth/by ryanmsaul

On November 19th, I participated in a panel entitled “Investment Market Update: Who’s Buying, Who’s Selling & Will Velocity Keep Going Up and Cap Rates Keep Going Down”. We had a lively discussion on the current market, and I wanted to share a few takeaways.

1. Who are the active buyers and sellers in today’s market? There is more variety in buyers now than in the past decade. REITs, private equity, owner-operators and even some “mom and pops” have been interested in purchasing properties and growing their portfolio. The sellers have been more diverse than normal as well. “Mom and pops” are still very active sellers, but we have seen more regional and national owners look to take advantage of the strong market and either sell their entire portfolio or divest of a couple of properties that don’t match their strategic vision.

2. Are there different buyers for different seniors housing asset classes? Yes, absolutely. Institutional groups typically chase larger, higher quality assets with consistent cash flow. Their low cost of funds has driven owner-operators down the acquisition spectrum to the smaller assets that may be underperforming.

3. What are the most important metrics that buyers are using in today’s market? Cap rates are the most important metric when valuing a cash flowing property. The difficulty comes in valuing a property that is underperforming. In those cases, a potential new operator will put together a pro forma and land on a rate of return that they’re comfortable with. Those deals typically see a wide range in offer prices.

4. What is the optimal size for acquisitions? Typically, the larger the offering, the better. Institutional groups have a lot of equity to deploy and if they can deploy it in 10 $30 million transactions as opposed to 25 $10 million transactions, groups will typically prefer fewer transactions. One-off or small portfolio transactions have a different pool of buyers, which tends to be less institutional and requires a broker to have a greater knowledge of the individual market and its individual buyers.

5. With pricing so strong in today’s market, why are some owners making a decision to hold? The current market conditions have hastened the timeframe for owners that had a planned exit strategy in the next 12-24 months. That being said, some owners are trying to increase their portfolio’s profitability and increase value in that way. Even if cap rates see a modest increase, a major increase in profitability will still see the owner come out ahead by waiting to sell.

6. Should we be concerned about overdevelopment in the seniors housing space? I think it is the biggest risk to the acquisition market moving forward. This is obviously a market-to-market (and sometimes, submarket-to-submarket) risk. If the area that an owner has a seniors housing facility becomes overdeveloped in the future, census levels will obviously suffer and valuations will go down.

7. What does the increase in development do to cap rates moving forward? It adds a level of risk moving forward. Anything that adds risk – whether it be development, reimbursement or labor risk among others – will naturally push cap rates up.

8. Where do you see the market headed over the next 12-24 months? In the near-term, it should be strong – cap rates are still higher than most other asset classes, interest rates are low and institutional equity needs to be placed. Further into the future, overdevelopment, government reimbursement changes, interest rate increases, increased regulation, increased tax rates and the housing market could cause a bit of a pullback in pricing. That being said, I still think the seniors housing space is better equipped to handle this uncertainty than other asset classes.

If you have any questions on the topic of this post or would like a confidential valuation of part or all of your seniors housing portfolio, please contact Matthew Alley at 630-858-2501 ext. 225 or [email protected].

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What is the optimum and/or minimum size for a Seniors Housing Community sale?

September 18, 2015/in assisted living, assisted living community, assisted living sale, Capitalization Rate, independent living, independent living facility, internal rate of return, Jason Punzel, prepare to sell assisted living, sell retirement community, sell seniors housing, what is my property worth/by ryanmsaul

When considering a sale, there is no minimum size for an assisted living facility (or independent living facility). Different room counts will attract different types of buyers. A REIT or large private equity company will not have an interest in a single, 16 unit assisted living facility. Likewise, a local nurse typically will not have the financial ability to buy a 100 unit assisted living facility.

As a company, we have found that most larger Buyers have a minimum threshold of 40 units for an assisted or independent living facility, with a preference of over 60 units. However, there are exceptions to every rule. If there are multiple smaller facilities (15-25) units on the same parcel, or nearby, often times larger Buyers are still interested. We have also had a lot of success selling smaller communities (25-30+ units) that are in favorable locations in larger cities, newer, and specialize in higher end private pay residents who prefer a smaller setting. Recently, we closed on a newer 25 unit assisted living community in the Portland area that sold for over $220,000/unit. It was 100% private pay with high occupancy and excellent quality finishes. Since there are so many variables that factor into a purchase decision by any Buyer, it is important to work with an expert in valuing and selling a senior living community to ensure the optimal pricing and terms.

For more information on what your senior living community could be worth, please contact Jason Punzel at [email protected] or 630-858-2501 x 233.

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Ryan M Saul